Download PDF by Zhonghao Shou,Yan Fang,Wenying Shou: Earthquake Vapor Model and Precise Prediction

Earthquakes are notion to defy predictions. certainly, various prediction tools were tried by means of generations of geologists. those equipment are in line with correlations of phenomena (such as animal habit, tidal habit, radon new release, floor shift, electromagnetism, foreshocks) with earthquakes. notwithstanding, none of those equipment have yielded worthwhile predictions, simply because they're in line with correlations rather than mechanisms. that's, an drawing close earthquake could or won't bring about those putative precursors, and phenomena except earthquakes can also reason those phenomena.

In this publication I suggest a brand new idea – earthquake vapor thought – that may be used to generate exact and exact earthquake predictions. This conception proposes that after an important rock is under pressure via exterior (including man-made) forces, its vulnerable components holiday first. This induces crevices, and floor water percolates via crevices. Water enlargement, contraction, friction and erosion extra weaken the rock. Friction in the course of flooring circulate heats the floor water and finally generates vapor at extreme temperature and strain. This vapor erupts from an drawing close hypocenter to the skin in the course of the crevices and exits through a number of nozzles. Erupting vapor can get up to shape an “earthquake cloud” while encountering chilly temperature at a better altitude. however, erupting vapor can shape a geothermal eruption ("geoeruption") as its warmth dissipates a preexisting cloud.

Earthquake clouds and geoeruptions may be differentiated from different geological or climate phenomena simply because they abruptly look, are vapor-based, have a set resource, and show extreme temperature and excessive strain. the site of eruption predicts the epicenter, the volume of vapor predicts the importance, and the time after an entire eruption empirically predicts the time of the earthquake inside days.

Using this idea, I envisioned sixty three self sufficient earthquakes to the us Geological Survey from 1994 to 2001. each one prediction has an outlined time, quarter, and value window. greater than 60% of those predictions are right. An review in this set of predictions exhibits that random guesses can have just a likelihood of 0.002 to accomplish an identical point of good fortune. I additionally revamped 1500 predictions to the general public via my web site from 1999 to 2007. After my profitable prediction of the M6.8 Bam Iran earthquake, the United international locations released my paper “Bam Earthquake Prediction & area expertise” in its 2004 yearbook (Seminars of the United international locations Programme on area purposes, 16), and shared this booklet to all its member states in early 2005. I additionally secured a patent “Method of targeted earthquake prediction and prevention of mysterious air and sea injuries” (Patent US 08068985B) in 2011.

With greater satellite tv for pc, temperature, and earthquake info, my procedure can in attaining a good better point of good fortune. i am hoping that this publication may help the mankind to foretell all devastating earthquakes.